A look at coal

[SAUM]

I thought this power plant inventory chart was kind of interesting.

The graph doesn't include 2003 - 2005 but the coal producers were ramping up production from about 2003 through 2008. during that time the coal consumers, whether they be power plants, coke plants or China, could not get enough coal. The company I work for oversold our production capabilities and there was a point in 2008 when we were sending trains away because we could not remove overburden fast enough. You can actually see when the recession set in during august of 2008 when the power plant stockpiles started to grow. It will be interesting to come back to this chart in the 3rd or 4th quarter and see if the typical summer month draw down occurs or if the stockpile just flattens off. If they continue to rise then there will be mine closings in WY real soon because our cost per ton is very close to that $8.75 spot price in the PRB.


http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/pa...s/coalmar.html

[SAUM]

Green shoots my ass. no one is using electricity.

[eat_beef]

SAUM, is that chart coal production or power plant inventories?

Sorry, it wasn't clear and the link didn't help, either?

[SAUM]

Power plant inventories. Here's the monthly coal production.

[SAUM]

I should point out that the plants with the capability to use NG will do so when NG is cheap. You can see that they are using the NG capabilities right now but it isn't a huge spike.

[Quixote2]

Looks like the most consumption since 1979, 30 years ago. Maybe there is hope for my nat gas stocks yet.

[SAUM]

Originally Posted by Quixote2

Looks like the most consumption since 1979, 30 years ago. Maybe there is hope for my nat gas stocks yet.

They are shutting in coal bed methane wells in this part of the country because it cost more to produce than spot will offer. As I understand it, the storage facilities are completely topped off.

[SAUM]

Green shoots would be growing in coal.



The Quarterly Coal Report (QCR) provides detailed quarterly data on U.S. coal production, distribution, exports, imports, receipts, prices, consumption, stocks, synfuel, and quality. Data on US. coke production, distribution, exports, imports, and consumption are also provided. All data for 2007 are final. All data for 2008 are final, with the exception of other industrial consumption, electric power sector consumption and stocks. All data for 2009 are preliminary.
Highlights for the 2nd Quarter of 2009:

• Production declined by 6.7 percent to 262.6 mst in the second quarter of 2009. This was the country’s lowest quarterly production in nine years.
• Total U.S. coal consumption fell by over 9 percent between the first and second quarters of 2009 to 231.7 mst, its lowest quarterly level in 14 years.
• After maintaining exceptionally high levels during most of 2008, coal exports fell for the second consecutive quarter. During the second quarter of 2009, U.S. producers exported 13.0 mst of coal, 2.9 percent less than they had exported during the preceding quarter, but 42 percent less than they exported during the final quarter of 2008.
• Between the first and second quarters of 2009, U.S. coal imports fell by 14 percent to 5.4 mst, their lowest level since the first quarter of 2004 and their lowest second-quarter level since 2002.
• After reaching their highest level in more than 22 years during the first quarter of 2009, ending stocks increased by an additional 11 percent between the first and second quarters. The new consumer stock level of 205.6 mst is now the highest level in the country’s history, exceeding the previous record set at the end of 1980.
• While demand for coal fell significantly between the first and second quarters of 2009, the average price of coal delivered to the electric power sector only fell from $2.25 per million Btu to $2.22 per million Btu. This new price is almost 10 percent higher than it was during the second quarter of 2008, when it was $2.02 per million Btu.

Dollar positive

[eat_beef]

Good thread Saum, thanks...

[SAUM]

Glad you like it EB. I wish I knew the total amount the generators can stockpile. I know our forward sold is down about 27% from last year.